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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/20 10:52

   Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Corn, Wheat Lower

   Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 7 
to 15 cents higher; wheat futures are 22 to 48 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the S&P down 25 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 40 points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are 
mixed with crude up .55 and natural gas down .17. Livestock trade is mostly 
higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 3.50.


   Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with flat spread action as 
trade fades further back to the middle part of the range with little fresh 
news. The daily export wire has been quiet, while basis is showing some signs 
of life again. Ethanol margins will continue to be squeezed by input costs with 
soft driving demand and still-burdensome stocks into late spring. The second 
crop in Brazil will head for the homestretch with drier weather in much of 
Brazil with some potential early frost threats short term. U.S. weather remains 
challenging for many in the short term with the north seeing a more-open, 
short-term forecast while remaining cool. On the July contract chart, we have 
resistance at the 20-day moving average at $7.93 with the lower Bollinger Band 
at $7.67 as support.


   Soybean futures are 7 to 15 cents higher at midday with spread action 
continuing to firm with July working just above the $17.00 area Friday morning. 
Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 higher and oil is 170 to 180 points higher with crush 
margins working to rebalance after meal led this week. South America is moving 
toward post-harvest footing at this point, with planting in the U.S. to 
continue to progress well in some areas with emergence catching up with the 
warm stretch. New-crop November is gaining against corn this morning, with time 
running short to hold acres. On the July soybean chart, we are well above the 
20-day moving average at $16.50 with the upper Bollinger band at $17.19 the 
next round up.


   Wheat futures are 22 to 48 cents lower with spring wheat the downside leader 
with better planting progress expected short term; however, we see little 
change to Northern Hemisphere weather and the political situation. The U.S. 
dollar has faded off the top of the range as well. Warmer weather is helping 
maturity to catch up a bit, while the Kansas wheat tour finds generally 
disappointing yields with an average below 40 bushels per acre (bpa). KC wheat 
is back to a 21-cent discount to Minneapolis in narrower action, and at an 
82-cent premium to Chicago, narrowing a bit as well. The KC July chart has 
resistance at the upper Bollinger band at $13.73, with the 20-day moving 
average well below the market at $12.04.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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