DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/27 11:15
Grains Mixed at Midday
Corn is narrowly mixed, soybeans are 2 to 4 cents lower, and wheat is 2
cents lower to 4 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 90. The dollar index is 20
points lower. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are firmer with crude
up $0.70. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade spiking to a new high by a
penny and half overnight before fading with spread trade flat so far. The
export wire is expected to remain active with the recent spread strength but no
sales were announced today. Ethanol margins remain under pressure with corn
values elevated as ethanol retains its premium to unleaded amid weakness in
energies to start the week. Basis will likely remain solid with snow slowing
harvest. Weekly crop progress showing harvest at 72% vs. 56% on average. On the
December contract, resistance is the fresh high at $4.21 3/4 with support the
20-day at $3.98.
Soybean trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade scoring new highs
before retreating with firm spread action so far. Meal is $4.00 to $5.00 lower
and oil is flat to 10 points lower. Brazil should continue to make planting
progress with the better rains short term for most, while Argentina continues
to remain slow in moving soybeans to crushers as their currency remains at the
low end of the range supporting the holding of stocks as a dollar hedge. Basis
remains strong as we continue to work to max out our logistics capacity to ship
the needed export bushels. Weekly crop progress showed harvest at 83% vs. 73%.
The November chart has resistance at the fresh high at 10.94 with support the
20-day at 10.53.
Wheat trade is 1 cent lower to 3 cents higher at midday with trade trying to
bounce after the Monday selling with rains set to move across the Plains, while
the early condition reports are mixed with HRW areas in tougher shape. The
ruble action continues to favor Russia a bit in the export markets but their
domestic prices are now elevated but with improved short term weather, along
with too much rain in Australia as harvest starts. Middle East buyers are
becoming more active with tenders as well. Kansas City is at a 67-cent discount
to Chicago with spreads back to the recent highs before reversing, while
Minneapolis is back to 56 cent discount with very active spread action. Rains
look to be more wide spread for U.S. growing areas over the next seven-10 days.
Winter wheat was 85% planted vs. 80% on average, 62% emerged vs. 60% on
average, with the crop at 41% good to excellent vs. 19% poor to very poor,
which is 15% below this time last year with Kansas at 29% good to excellent.
Kansas City December chart resistance is the fresh high at $5.79 1/2, and
support is the 20-day at $5.42.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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